Summary: The apparent failure of Syrian President Hafez Assad's health may be spawning a power struggle between Assad's son and brother. The president's brother and disgraced former vice president, Rifat Assad, is perceived as trying to gain power while Assad's son, Bashar, is being groomed to take over. It appears that Syria is headed for a power struggle over the presidency, which would not only change internal Syrian politics, but also drastically affect the Syrian-Israeli peace process.

Analysis:
According to the Israeli and Arab press, Syrian security forces controlled by Syrian President Hafez Assad's son, Bashar, recently began a search and arrest campaign against supporters of Rifat Assad, the president's brother and former vice president. The Sept. 19 crackdown was triggered by apparent attempts by Rifat to promote himself and his son, challenging the expected ascension of Hafez Assad's son and chosen heir, Bashar. This rivalry may lead to a succession struggle that could significantly affect domestic politics, as well as the country's peace process with Israel.

The power struggle between Rifat and Bashar has arisen alongside reports of President Hafez Assad's growing health problems. According to the Sept. 24 Jerusalem Post, Arab sources closely monitoring Syria say the ailing president is significantly weakened and has not appeared in public for several days. Also, Syrian television has begun using archival footage of Assad when referringto him.

While these reports cannot be confirmed, Assad is known to suffer from heart and other ailments. On July 23, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak told The Jerusalem Post that it was better to deal with the "old guard," implying that a generational change could be near and could impede the peace process.

When Assad suffered a heart attack in 1983, Rifat - then vice president - staged an unsuccessful bid for power, and was exiled to Europe until 1992. Rifat, still angered by his removal from the vice presidency, now wants the presidency. Damascus has perceived recent actions by Rifat and his son as attempts to gain power,causing deep anger in the Syrian capital. Rifat showed up at the funeral for the King of Morocco while President Assad intentionally stayed away. A few days later, Rifat's son Sumer visited Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in Gaza and promoted mending ties between Arafat and Assad.

Bashar, a former opthamologist and Assad's chosen successor, has also made attempts to increase his power, adopting a higher public profile in Syria and abroad following his accelerated induction into the military, political, and economic power centers of Damascus. In an unprecedented show of force, 600 of Bashar's troops surrounded Rifat's home in Latakia and ordered Rifat loyalists to give themselves up, threatening them with accusations of corruption. At last report, Rifat's loyalists, called "the private militia," were still barricaded inside Rifat's home.

The ruling Syrian Ba'th Party is due to convene in November. Assad reportedly plans to announce a change in the makeup of the government and elevate Bashar to a senior post, while decreasingRifat's power. Rifat is trying to avoid further confrontation to prevent this from happening. He sent a message to the presidential residence at the height of the siege saying that he did not instruct his followers to barricade themselves inside his home. Rifat added that he was still loyal to Assad and said he had no intention of harming the stability of the Syrian regime.

If the reports of President Assad's failing health are true and he does not make it until November, the country will certainly witness a succession crisis, played out as a power struggle between Rifat and his loyalists and Bashar and his forces. However, it wouldn't take the president's death to ignite a crisis. Bashar is only 35 years old, making him five years too young to take over the presidency by constitutional standards. The succession struggle could continue until Bashar reaches his 40th birthday.

While this in and of itself is a significant event, it also has ramifications for the Syria-Israel peace process. Israeli officials already see rising tensions along the northern border with Lebanon as a direct threat to peace talks with Damascus. Israeli officials have seen a reported increase in Hezbollah violence as proof that Syrian interest in negotiations is waning. Syria has sought the return of the Golan Heights from Israel in negotiations. In exchange, Israel has requested security guarantees.

If, somehow, Rifat gains a significant amount of power in the succession, Syrian-Israeli relations will not progress as they would under Bashar. Rifat is more anti-Israel than Assad and has in the past supported Islamic extremists. Bashar tends to align himself with his father. When interviewed by the Arab daily al-Wasat, Bashar had no harsh words against Israel, going so far as to say that if Israeli forces left Southern Lebanon, the military wing of Hezbollah would wither.(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc.

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